GP Short Notes

GP Short Notes # 601, 5 December 2021

Honduras: The Return of the Left
Porkkodi Ganeshpandian

What happened?
On 28 November, Honduras held its presidential, congressional and local elections. Early counting of the votes indicated the lead of Xiomara Castro, a leftist candidate of the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE).

On 1 December, the presently ruling conservative National Party's candidate, Nasry Asfura, conceded defeat. This paved the way for the rise of the first female President in Honduras, Xiomara Castro. This also leads to the return of the left in Honduras after twelve years.

What is the background?
First, the elections. Honduras is known for its low-voter turnouts. The protests following the 2017 elections caused a massive migration of Hondurans. However, the 2021 elections witnessed the highest voter turnout in twenty-four years and a peaceful post-election process. Hernandez is implicated in a narcotic case, under investigation in the US. 

Second, the politics of Honduras. The institutions established to battle corruption in Honduras had existed as a mere shadow under the Hernandez administration. Several graft scandals have plagued the ruling National Party for years. Two hurricanes and the covid19 pandemic has led to a nine per cent reduction of Honduras's GDP, resulting in a sharp rise in poverty and unemployment in the region. The campaign promises made by Castro offered to lessen the restrictions that Honduras faced under a conservative rule for twelve years. These include liberal abortion restrictions, support to the UN's fight against corruption, and a major constitutional overhaul.

Third, the campaign promises of Castro. She has promised to institute an anti-corruption commission backed by the United Nations to probe the allegations of corruption under the Hernandez administration. She has also promised to strengthen diplomatic relations with Beijing. This has served to cement her victory as she is seen to be the only leader who can navigate through the economic and political chaos of the past four years. Her rival, Asfura, was less advantaged with his association with Hernandez's party, despite his promise to attempt a tax reduction scheme.

Fourth, the support for the left. Past election trends in Honduran elections since the coup of 2009 indicate a minor difference between the votes secured by the National Party and the LIBRE. However, the 2021 elections broke the tradition. Among the fifty-two percent of the votes counted, Castro had secured fifty-three percent whereas her rival had secured only thirty-four percent of the votes.

What does it mean?
The return of the Left in the Honduran elections establishes no observable pattern in Honduran politics. However, the victory of the Castro could significantly alter Honduran politics in the days to come. First, Honduras is bound to contribute to the emerging divide between the leftist and rightist rulers in the Latin American Region. Second, Honduras is set for stability in domestic politics, given the ambitious and necessary campaign promises of Castro. The aim to fight Honduran corruption has already met with the approval of the United States. This would result in a turbulence in the Honduran foreign policy, especially with Castro's desire to establish friendly relations with Beijing, the rival of the largest trading partner of Honduras. Yet, the 2021 elections in Honduras with the highest voter turnout in twenty-four years has proven that the state is now set to establish a more liberal democracy that would attempt to gradually undo the shortcomings of the past.

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